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Casey and Mayor Roberson have a contentious interview about masks and mask fines in Elkhart, IN. Fact-dump below.

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Remember this?

New virus cases decline in U.S. and experts credit masks - AP, August 25

Indiana governor: 'Masks are working' to slow COVID-19 - Indianapolis Star, Sep 17, 2020

Holcomb was so committed to getting his message across Wednesday that even when Indiana Department of Transportation Commissioner Joe McGinnis delivered a report that focused on roadways with no discussion of facial coverings, Holcomb responded with this line: “You did say masks are working. I just want to get that in there for the third time.”

 

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Welcome new people. The two articles and corresponding charts above already prove my point. Those results are duplicated globally. Let me put a couple of things to bed right away since I already know how some of you will react.

• I'm not anti-mask. I'm pro-science.
• I wear my mask all the time to put people at ease, not because it's effective.
• COVID is real and no one is actually denying its existence beyond a few online. This is a childish red herring argument used when you are desperate.
• My goal has always been to inform my audience of the actual clinical facts so they can protect themselves. There is no other motivation.
• I started regular coverage of the virus in December 2019.
• I started daily coverage on January 14, 2020. This is long before anyone in US media I'm aware of (for daily coverage), and far sooner than almost any politician considered COVID a threat.
• I promoted the masks early on before we knew the virus was airborne while reminding everyone to only use their mask once.
• I've been reminding everyone about the single-use of the mask from the very beginning. Reusing a contaminated mask defeats the purpose and can spread infection.
• My opinions about masks or mask fines don't come from my politics or my ideology. They come from peer-reviewed clinical research, not preliminary lab results with problematic methodology, which have never been considered scientifically valid in any scientific field. As well as real-world data.
• Everything I said in this interview is backed up with scientific research and real-world data. None of it is baseless opinion. None of it is taken from unsubstantiated posts from social media, or some conspiracy website yapping about Bill Gates.
• While many of you may be new here, I've already addressed the issues you'll likely post ... many, many times. I simply don't have time to go over 12 months of work I've done on this in a single interview or post.
• The reality ... officials are in a tough spot. They don't have any answers. They can't stop the virus. It's career suicide to say that out loud so they must come up with, what I call, 'busy work' to make it seem like they are trying. Often, as is the case with fines, this busy work pushes the blame on an innocent population in order to pass the buck and buy time.

The experts went from correctly telling you a mask was your last hail mary to prevent infection but wasn't all that effective. Every other step is more important in prevention but the mask is the least effective tool in your tool chest. Now, they've all but abandoned those other steps in favor of indoctrinating people into the Cult of Mask with a form of religious dogma that masks are the most important and effective tool you have. Cases continue to spike and they keep neglecting to tell people to only use their mask once. Consider this ... everywhere mask mandates have been in effect, where COVID is an issue, has now been hit by a new spike in cases. This includes places with universal compliance like Japan. If masks worked the way the dogma currently dictates, the spike would be impossible. Everywhere that installed mask mandate fines on businesses and/or individuals hasn't reduced their number of cases. The policy is ineffective and causes unnecessary tension, strife, and hardship with zero tangible results. It's just throwing matches on a powder keg. We had lockdowns because the Imperial College released a study showing hundreds of millions might die. Oxford proved their study wrong and the IC retracted it, but lockdowns remained. We have mask mandates because we thought the virus was spread through droplets alone and asymptomatic people were superspreaders. We now know it's airborne and all of the research shows asymptomatic spread, while possible, is not a major source of infections. Please listen to a previous podcast I did: Why Can’t We Listen To The Experts Who Disagree With Politicians?

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I've included just a few links to get you started on your journey if you really want to dive in. Prior to the pandemic, there was a mountain of research showing masks of all kinds don't prevent aerosol viral spread. This research has now been completely abandoned and ignored in favor of preliminary lab results that are never considered scientifically acceptable to draw conclusions from. I can't include all of the links to those studies but some are mixed in below. Authors Retract Study Showing Efficacy of Mask Mandates After Surge In New Cases

“The authors have withdrawn this manuscript because there are increased rates of SARS-CoV-2 cases in the areas that we originally analyzed..."

Masks-for-all for COVID-19 not based on sound data Dr. Brosseau is a national expert on respiratory protection and infectious diseases and professor (retired), University of Illinois at Chicago. Dr. Sietsema is also an expert on respiratory protection and an assistant professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

“The evidence from…laboratory filtration studies suggests that such fabric masks may reduce the transmission of larger respiratory droplets. There is little evidence regarding the transmission of small aerosolized particulates of the size potentially exhaled by asymptomatic or presymptomatic individuals with COVID-19.”

Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and Environmental Measures - CDC Meta Analysis

We did not find evidence that surgical-type face masks are effective in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza transmission, either when worn by infected persons (source control) or by persons in the general community to reduce their susceptibility (Figure 2). However, as with hand hygiene, face masks might be able to reduce the transmission of other infections and therefore have value in an influenza pandemic when healthcare resources are stretched.

Masking lack of evidence with politics Tom Jefferson is a senior associate tutor and honorary research fellow, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, University of Oxford. Disclosure statement is here Carl Heneghan is Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine, University of Oxford, Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine and Editor in Chief of BMJ EBM

In 2010, at the end of the last influenza pandemic, there were six published randomised controlled trials with 4,147 participants focusing on the benefits of different types of masks. 2 Two were done in healthcare workers and four in family or student clusters. The face mask trials for influenza-like illness (ILI) reported poor compliance, rarely reported harms and revealed the pressing need for future trials. Despite the clear requirement to carry out further large, pragmatic trials a decade later, only six had been published: five in healthcare workers and one in pilgrims. 3 This recent crop of trials added 9,112 participants to the total randomised denominator of 13,259 and showed that masks alone have no significant effect in interrupting the spread of ILI or influenza in the general population, nor in healthcare workers.

Even a Military-Enforced Quarantine Can’t Stop the Virus, Study Reveals

A study conducted by Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in cooperation with the Naval Medical Research Center sought to test lockdowns along with testing and isolation. What were the results? The virus still spread, though 90% of those who tested positive were without symptoms. Incredibly, 2% of the CHARM recruits still contracted the virus, even if all but one remained asymptomatic. “Our study showed that in a group of predominantly young male military recruits, approximately 2% became positive for SARS-CoV-2, as determined by qPCR assay, during a 2-week, strictly enforced quarantine.”

The study actually suggests the quarantine may increase the spread of the virus. Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China

A total of 1174 close contacts of the asymptomatic positive cases were traced, and they all tested negative for the COVID-19.

EPIDEMIOLOGIST: IS THERE HARD EVIDENCE THAT MASKS ARE EFFECTIVE IN STOPPING COVID? - July 2020

"At the moment, there is no hard evidence to back this up."

Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers

Our results suggest that the recommendation to wear a surgical mask when outside the home among others did not reduce, at conventional levels of statistical significance, the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in mask wearers in a setting where social distancing and other public health measures were in effect, mask recommendations were not among those measures, and community use of masks was uncommon. Yet, the findings were inconclusive and cannot definitively exclude a 46% reduction to a 23% increase in infection of mask wearers in such a setting.

Dr. Matteo Bassetti, director of Infectious Diseases at the San Martino Hospital in Genoa

The use of masks only makes sense in confined places, where it is not possible to have certainty and guarantee necessary physical distancing or outdoors when physical distancing is not possible. I tried to look for scientific evidence on the use of open air mask and potential benefits of virus transmission, but I couldn't find any. Making the mask mandatory across Italy outdoors without any distinction between the higher and lower endemic circulation areas is wrong.

A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers

Conclusions: This study is the first RCT of cloth masks, and the results caution against the use of cloth masks. This is an important finding to inform occupational health and safety. Moisture retention, reuse of cloth masks and poor filtration may result in increased risk of infection. Further research is needed to inform the widespread use of cloth masks globally. However, as a precautionary measure, cloth masks should not be recommended for HCWs (Health Care Workers), particularly in high-risk situations, and guidelines need to be updated.

Jacobs, J. L. et al. (2009) “Use of surgical face masks to reduce the incidence of the common cold among health care workers in Japan: A randomized controlled trial,” American Journal of Infection Control, Volume 37, Issue 5, 417 – 419. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19216002

N95-masked health-care workers (HCW) were significantly more likely to experience headaches. Face mask use in HCW was not demonstrated to provide benefit in terms of cold symptoms or getting colds.

Cowling, B. et al. (2010) “Face masks to prevent transmission of influenza virus: A systematic review,” Epidemiology and Infection, 138(4), 449-456. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/face-masks-to-prevent-transmission-of-influenza-virus-a-systematic- review/64D368496EBDE0AFCC6639CCC9D8BC05

None of the studies reviewed showed a benefit from wearing a mask, in either HCW or community members in households (H).

bin-Reza et al. (2012) “The use of masks and respirators to prevent transmission of influenza: a systematic review of the scientific evidence,” Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 6(4), 257–267. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2011.00307.x

“There were 17 eligible studies. … None of the studies established a conclusive relationship between mask/respirator use and protection against influenza infection.”

Smith, J.D. et al. (2016) “Effectiveness of N95 respirators versus surgical masks in protecting health care workers from acute respiratory infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis,” CMAJ Mar 2016 https://www.cmaj.ca/content/188/8/567

“We identified six clinical studies … . In the meta-analysis of the clinical studies, we found no significant difference between N95 respirators and surgical masks in associated risk of (a) laboratory-confirmed respiratory infection, (b) influenza-like illness, or (c) reported work-place absenteeism.”

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Contrary to popular opinion on social media, in our tribalist political arena, news media, or local officials ... Americans actually wear masks and comply with mask mandates much higher than much of the world. Over 80% wear their mask now. The latest spike in the U.S. started September 14 when 77% of Americans were adhering to the mask mandates. That number is exactly the same as July 31 when U.S. COVID cases began to decline drastically and before the AP and Gov. Holcomb credited masks for the decline in cases. In other words ... the same percentage of Americans who wore masks during the big decline in COVID cases over the summer were also wearing masks at the beginning of the latest surge in cases. There was no change, no fluctuation at all in the number of Americans wearing masks during a decline and a surge in COVID cases. The number of people wearing masks had no effect on the number of cases of the virus. I said the same thing three times, three different ways so everyone understands the actual data on mask-wearing. Sorry about being redundant. I know you all just came here to listen to the interview with Mayor Roberson. You weren't expecting all this to be thrown at you. However, it's important that you know what I said during that interview is factually correct. While I can appreciate the Mayor is just taking the advice of his advisors, those advisors have no actual data backing up their policies. I do. The mandates we are being given by public officials are unscientific and, dare I say, emotional.

• Lockdowns didn't work and the preponderance of research says they are ineffective and actually worse for people long-term.
• Mask mandates simply don't work.

Blaming innocent people for those two failed policies with fines simply because you've run out of ideas and are trying to hold on until the vaccine/herd immunity happens is not a legitimate way to govern. It's tyrannical. While Mayor Roberson may not be seeking to be tyrannical, the end product is just that.